Jones Seminar: Low-Carbon Energy R&D Portfolios—Finding common ground when experts and models disagree

Optional ZOOM LINK
Meeting ID: 959 2274 9850
Passcode: 629274

Inspired by challenges in designing energy technology policy in the face of climate change, we introduce an approach we call Robust Portfolio Decision Analysis, building on Belief Dominance as a prescriptive operationalization of a concept that has appeared in the literature under a number of names. The Belief Dominance concept synthesizes multiple conflicting sources of information to uncover alternatives that are intelligent responses in the presence of many beliefs or models. We use this concept to determine the set of non-dominated portfolios and to identify corresponding robust individual alternatives, thereby uncovering viable alternatives that may not be revealed otherwise. Using multiple large scale expert elicitation studies and multiple Integrated assessment models, we illustrate how Robust Portfolio Decision Analysis helps identify robust R&D investments into individual technologies.

About the Speaker(s)

Erin Baker
Professor of Industrial Engineering & Operations Research, U Mass, Amherst

Erin Baker is Professor of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research at University of Massachusetts, Amherst and Faculty Director of the Energy Transition Institute, focused on stakeholder-engaged research at the intersection of energy and technology. She has a PhD in engineering-economic systems and operations research from Stanford University, and a Bachelor's in mathematics from UC Berkeley. She combines operations research methods and economics to decision making under uncertainty, with a focus on energy justice and publicly-funded energy technology research and development portfolios in the face of climate change.

Contact

For more information, contact Ashley Parker at ashley.l.parker@dartmouth.edu.