Stage 2 Approach and Structure
Factors impacting whether and how it is physically possible for bioenergy to sustainably meet a substantial fraction of future demand for energy services while honoring other priorities can be thought of in terms of the following categories:
- Potential levers for increasing bioenergy supply, including pasture intensification, double crops, alternative animal feed rations, use of currently burned/disturbed lands, and energy crops having broad site range and/or high productivity.
- Factors that could be either levers or constraints, including dietary choice, energy demand, the productivity of food and crop production, and the efficiency of the food supply chain.
- Potential/perceived showstoppers, including conflicts with food security, impacts on habitat and biodiversity, and accelerated depletion of fertilizer stocks.
Stage 2 tasks are based on factors for which new analysis appears to offer important insights relevant to GSB objectives:
- Task 1. Current land inventory
- Task 2. Pasture productivity
- Task 3. Double crops
- Task 4. Change animal feed rations
- Task 5. Dietary choice and food supply chain efficiency
- Task 6. Energy crop productivity
- Task 7. Bioenergy and food security
- Task 8. Fertilizer demand, biomass residues, and soil fertility
- Task 9. Integrated analysis
New analysis will not be undertaken during Stage 2 for other factors – including inventory of burned lands, biomass conversion efficiencies, productivity of feed and food crops, food supply chain efficiency, fuel demand, and efficiency of energy utilization – for which prior work in the literature is believed to be sufficient.
Figure 2. GSB Stage 2 Tasks in the Context of Factors Impacting Bioenergy Production Potential.
The overall objective of analysis undertaken during Stage 2 is to develop new understanding of the potential for very large scale bioenergy production. We do not seek to address all bioenergy feedstock options and conversion processes, and we do not intend to address the domain of the literally dozens of efforts worldwide aimed at developing a general framework for evaluating the sustainability of bioenergy processes. Consistent with an emphasis on desirable futures and exploration of potential, the GSB project will seek to frame analyses in ways that avoid spending large amounts of time on options offering marginal benefits and/or involving difficult tradeoffs.
For example, we will focus on increasing productivity from currently managed lands, and will not consider production from land identified as ecologically sensitive or land whose conversion to bioenergy production would entail prohibitively large carbon emissions.
Similarly, we anticipate modeling energy crop productivity as a function of precipitation without irrigation, again avoiding a complex set of issues. Energy crops with neutral or positive environmental attributes – e.g., with respect to soil fertility, water quality, and wildlife habitat – will be emphasized over crops that have clear negative impacts.
To limit analytical complexity and avoid making judgments about how much the world will or will not change in the future, analysis in Stage 2 will be calibrated relative to current practice where practical. Transition dynamics will be addressed in Stage 3. The need to consider economic aspects may be anticipated during Stage 2. However, the main focus of Stage 2 is to be the physical possibility and it is desired that economics not be brought to bear in a way that constrains future possibility by current circumstances.
Stage 2 activities are structured in terms of tasks carried out by working groups that will generally have international representation. Each task will include substantial analysis that is forward-looking, global, and involves multiple bioenergy crops. Analysis that has a more local focus (national, subcontinental, or continental), addresses next steps more than potential, and/or is crop-specific will also be undertaken. Including this latter category of analysis in the GSB project is motivated by a desire to validate global analysis, illustrate and investigate near-term possibilities, and lay a foundation for activities to be undertaken during Stage 3 of the project. It is envisioned that each task will target one or more peer-reviewed papers, and that these papers will provide the basis for further communications intended to reach a broader audience. Where possible, it is desired that tasks be conceived and staffed so that key milestones can be completed within 1 year of initiation.