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Dartmouth
Institute for Security Technology Studies (ISTS)
Emerging Threats Assessment: Biological
Terrorism
Threats
Assessments Conference Summary
A
Technology-Based Threat Assessment Workshop
July 7-9, 2000
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Friday's
lunchtime presentation
Richard
Hutchinson, Ph.D. (BW Improved Response Leader, Soldier and Biological
Chemical Command) gave a two-part presentation on threat variables
and threat response, which was informative and thorough. Much of
this information can be seen in the web-posted PowerPoint slides,
white paper, and reprint, which he submitted.
A key idea that Dick championed was
a Command & Control (C&C) simulator, which allows modeling
of response components to see how all of these might work together.
The simulation would also provide a tool to evaluate and improve
these concepts. We are physically testing and modeling components
of the BW response template, but a field test to really demonstrate
such a comprehensive, system seems almost impossible. This simulation
is needed to test our, and any other BW response system at the strategic
level. Dr. Hutchinson mentioned there is beta testing of automating
the BW response template at the city level through the RAMS (Response
Assets Management System). This has been funded for 5 sites at present
and takes two weeks to customize for each city. A much broader system
would be needed to link the cities and other assets together. Dick indicated his strong belief in the need
for future research and development in this area.
Friday afternoon panels
The
response teams from New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Maryland gave
their insights for the afternoon's first panel discussion. New Hampshire
is comfortable with the present Command and Control structure. They
can active their command and control center within 15 minutes of
being alerted to a disaster situation.
The two members of the Maryland National Guard Rapid Response Team, Bill
Bograkos, D.O. (Lieutenant Colonel, Flight Surgeon) and Daniel Kaszeta
(Disaster Preparedness Advisor, White House Military Office) stressed
the following in their white paper and presentation: 1) build appropriate
infrastructure to equip response. 2) the Crisis Management Planning
cell is a multidiscipline team of people who must be ready to coordinate,
communicate, and form an organized team (otherwise we will see (have
seen) crisis, chaos, and confusion, 3) in comparing the 3 states
presenting today, appreciate not only is the geography different
but the threat analysis can be different, and, 4) The model to apply
is the U.S. Interagency Domestic Terrorism Concept of Operations
Plan, a copy of which they shared in reprint form. They
are also confident in their area planning and preparation.
Paul Roth, M.D. (Dean, University of New Mexico, School of Medicine) led
the team discussion for his state, reviewing some of the topics
found in his white paper. They reviewed their collaboration with
Los Alamos National Laboratories, Sandia National Laboratories,
State Department of Health, and Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute
to research new technologies, implement new population surveillance
via real-time reporting of E.R. complaints which may be sentinel
events, and to provide training of physicians and first responders.
Paul stressed the very real danger of the current threat and pushed
this concept of partnership between federal, state, and private
entities to mount a meaningful response strategy.
There was a good discussion with Peter LaPorte (Executive Director, D.C.
Emergency Management Agency) providing animated leadership. Peteršs
main point was that the response teams must share common training
and communication skills. In his experience, that public health people
donšt speak a common language with command and control personnel
until they learn to understand one another.
The Response Technology Panel began with Mike Myjak (The Virtual Workshop,
Inc.) reviewing how military technology and costs have made it cost-effective
for the development of modeling and simulation (M&S) systems
to improve training. The effectiveness of these systems was demonstrated
convincingly in the Gulf War. MEDical simulation NETwork (MEDNET) is a proposal
to develop similar technology to apply to bioterrorism planning,
training, and C&C implementation.
His paper provides many of the technological details, which
Mike states are already in existence, ready to apply. The system
could be useful for combat, natural disaster, and other training.
John Bowersox, M.D., Ph.D. (University of California, San Francisco) gave
an overview of Telemedicine and how its present acceptance is limited
to niches like prison or military medicine by social and market
(reimbursement) forces rather than technological concerns.
In the future, informatics, the widespread use of computers
and the Internet, and real improvement in patient care will lead
to further acceptance. John believes there will always need to be
a human touch behind telemedicine and robotic surgery but he cited
neurosugery as one area, this technology, is currently impacting. Remote medical care, training, testing, and supervision are all
feasible uses of this technology.
David Zelter, Ph.D. (Fraunhofer Center for Research), reviewed how computer
visualization technology can contribute to detection through the
use of sensors and monitoring. Situation awareness requires systems
to monitor data and give alerts, filtering events from background,
constantly data-mining to discover emerging threat patterns, and
to utilize artificial intelligence (AI) stratagems to test the hypothesis,
"Is an attack underway?" Decision-centered visualization
is an interactive information architecture ergonomically assisting
human thinking and analysis.
The panel on threat protection for biological and cyber threats had Dennis
Kleinman, MD of the FDA further talk about the growing power for
scientists to select virulent organisms through natural selection
and then modify with variable genetic code that can be changed easily
to defeat vaccine development. Dr. Jian Zhao presented his white
paper on "mobile code," which will be covered in our white
paper section. Mobile code refers to code that is transferred to
a computer chip/system, via wire or wireless transmission, as instructions
or data to change the behavior of the instrument or robot.
There are security concerns that terrorists could exploit
to shut down our power and communication networks, by attaching
this instruction code.
The panel on nanotechnology, robotics and genetic engineering featured scientific
presentations by three Dartmouth College professors. Ursula Gibson
described nanotechnology as engineering at the molecular level using
physics, chemistry, and biochemistry to make a machine which can
function at a molecular level. Daniela Rus reviewed her work with
robots which can assemble and operate in different modes while using
identical robotic parts, like a Lego set. Chris Lowery, MD, reviewed
the remarkable progress of genetic engineering in attempts to treat
human disease, emphasizing that this technology could be used for
offensive or defensive weapon development.
Friday night address with panel discussion, public invited
Dr. George Baer, Chairman, Strategy and Policy Department, US Naval War
College, welcomed the public and spoke on, "Is the American
public safe from bioterrorism?"
Dr. Baer states that there is no certain answer this question.
Public awareness must not become public panic. Because there
is a possibility of some attack, some social disaster, there is
an absolute need to prepare. Dr. Baer asks what are the social costs of public safety? Consider
the New Hampshire state motto, "Live free or die." Will
society trade freedom for security?
How does one balance the two?
Does a potential terrorist have social rights? Should a terrorist be treated by standard criminal process and procedures,
or, should a terrorist be subject to vigorous counterterrorist measures
which may abrogate that terrorists rights? If urgent intelligence were needed, would torture be used as an
effective means of reflecting the community's moral authority to
protect itself from more terrorism?
The key to all counterterrorism is timely and accurate intelligence.
This may require intrusive information collection by more powerful
governmental agencies. This
may impose significant restrictions or even violations of what we
think it means to "live free," that is to our civil liberties
and perhaps even our constitutional rights.
This could affect our rule of law, our right to privacy,
even the fabric of our "open society."
Dr. Baer asks us, if Bioterrorism is such a threat to national
security that we will decide to sacrifice some freedom in the face
of this threat? Or would we choose to sacrifice the liberty and safeguards which
we guarantee the innocent until they are proven guilty? Would we allow torture and other violations
of due process constitutional guarantees, which could protect an
innocent terrorist, rather than sacrificing freedom for all?
Dr. Baer stated that is from discussions and debates such as this one, that
society established political values and maintain cohesion. This process can be aided by wise political
leadership, by good information gathering, and our democratic election
process. We will have to
decide how much is a society willing to live "less free"
to prevent death. Dr. Baer concluded by stating that the answers
to these questions depend ultimately on public awareness, on results
of a "live free or die" debate, and value judgments discussed
above. With this answer,
politicians, police authorities, government agencies, and our military
can plan intelligence gathering, preemptive action, and response
planning.
Dr. Ken Alibek provided a broad and comprehensive review of bioweapons.
He discussed his personal experience in the Russian bioweapons program.
Key to his discussion was the nature of individual agents that have
been developed and can be developed in the near future. He discussed
the agents and how the specific weapons are classified. He also
discussed have violated its our modify from their natural state
to their new state to optimize delivery as a weapon. He also discussed
examples of a series of known agents and how they can be weaponized
further. Dr. Alibek discussed how these agents can be delivered
to their targets, and how they would be spread throughout the targeted
population.
Note: We welcome additional information
on these talks, panel comments, and audience participation.
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